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NOT QUITE IN THE MIDDEL
MIGRATION TRENDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
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By Bryan Bezold
RCGA Director of Research and Chief Economist
The RCGA’s economic development program for the next five years is focused on increasing employment and investment in the St. Louis region. A subset of that goal is to benchmark the region’s employment growth against some peer regions and the U.S. as a whole.
That benchmarking flows from the unfortunate reality that the St. Louis region
has, with a few exceptions, added jobs at
a slower rate than the U.S. as a whole for
literally decades. Even during the late
90s, when the region added over 100,000 new jobs, St. Louis still grew at a slower rate than the U.S. did.
It’s certainly a positive development that the region is adding jobs (and it is; the
recession of 2001 and subsequent weak employment recovery are behind us), but it is sobering to realize that it is doing so at a slower rate than the U.S. After all, slower than average absolute growth is a decline relative to other areas–unless the trend is reversed the St. Louis region will be less attractive to businesses serving local and regional markets.
The decades following World War II were periods of dramatic change in U.S. society, and much of that change was driven by migration. The development of Levittown, New York after World War II marked one of the first suburbs, and kicked off a wave
of migration from central cities to suburbs. Here in St. Louis, that trend was mirrored by growth in places like Chesterfield and
St. Peters.
The larger, both literally and figuratively, migration trend was, however, intra-national rather than intra-urban. Between 1950 and 2000, Americans moved en masse from
the Northeast and Midwestern parts of the country to the South and West. In 1950,
55.5 percent of the U.S. population lived
in a Northeastern or Midwestern state. In
1960, that share fell to 53.7 percent; in
1970 it was 52 percent. A decline to be sure, but even as late as 1970 a majority of the nation still lived in either a Northeastern or Midwestern state.
During the 70s, however, things got worse for the Midwest and Northeast. In that decade, the population of the U.S. grew by 11.4 percent. In the Northeast, however, it grew by just 0.2 percent. The Midwestern population grew by 4.0 percent. By 1980,
47.7 percent of the U.S. population lived in a Midwestern or Northeastern state. For the first time, a majority of the U.S. population lived in a Southern or Western state.
The 70s was the Northeast’s roughest decade; the 80s was the Midwest’s worst decade. The Midwestern population grew
by just 1.4 percent between 1980 and 1990, while the U.S. grew by 9.8 percent. At the same time, the population of Western and Southern states grew by 22.3 and 13.4 percent, respectively.
Growth in the Northeast and Midwest accelerated slightly in the 90s, to 5.5 percent and 7.9 percent respectively. But those growth rates still lagged behind both U.S., and the South and West. By 2000, 58 percent of the U.S. population lived in a Southern or Western state.
UNITED STATES POPULATION PERCENTAGE |
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When viewed through that prism, it is easier to see how St. Louis’ performance has been related to national factors as much as local ones. The region’s weak population and employment performance are part of larger national and long-term trend. Metropolitan areas like Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Providence, Buffalo, and Cleveland suffered from this trend, while metropolitan areas like Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas, and Phoenix benefited.
It’s tempting, and sometimes appropriate, to evaluate the region’s performance in terms of local leadership and development programs. But that leadership is only part of the picture. The reality is that for the last 40 years, local economic developers have been swimming against a national tide that they have little control over.
The “why” behind this trend is difficult to ascertain. A variety of factors, including climate and lower costs, played a role, as did access to natural amenities such beaches and mountains. Some of these factors, such as taxes and regulations, fall under the
control of state and local government. Weather amenable to golf in January, however, isn’t one of them.
Recent events bear some of the same hallmarks. The reduction in air service at Lambert International Airport following American’s acquisition of TWA was frustrating for local business leaders. But St. Louis is isn’t the only city to see changes in the level of air service, and the changes have a lot to do with the state of the airline industry, not just the state of the St. Louis region. Delta, for example, is based in and has its largest hub in Atlanta, the “capital” of the south and one of the fastest growing metropolitan areas in the country. At this writing, Delta is operating under Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. It’s highly unlikely, to put it mildly, that that bankruptcy is related to some failure by economic developers in the Atlanta region. It is likely to be due to the
challenges that network carriers with high legacy costs face in the air travel market. Similar arguments could be made about Ford’s decision to close its plant in Hazelwood, or Federated’s acquisition of
May Department Stores. |
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